www.fastcodesign.com: Spreadsheets are absolute. You enter some variables, and a spreadsheet outputs an absolute number, according to whatever logic has been programmed into it. But here's the problem: While spreadsheets like Excel are tools of certainty, we use them to manage uncertain things, like our stock portfolios, our home finances, and so on. Things where there's no right answer, just a range of probable best answers.
4 comments:
This program seems like it could be really useful for a lot of things, and based on this article, really does serve a purpose that Excel doesn’t. The function of Guesstimate could be approximated in an Excel spreadsheet with two rows, one for the low end estimate(s), and one for a high end estimate(s), and then using those numbers as the range. This would, like Guesstimate, produce a range as the output. The big difference seems to be that Guesstimate runs the numbers with the entire range, not just the high and low ends, and can work in probabilities. I found Guesstimate’s actual site, and decided to make an account and try it out. It took me a few minutes to figure out how to use it, but it is all very simple drag and drop functions. As of now, I wouldn’t want to use it for large amounts of data as you can’t assign a function to an entire column (or at least not that I have found playing with it yet) but it does seem to work well for figuring out one specific complex problem. For each estimate you can select the range, whether the probability is linear or a bell curve, and there is space for the justification for the estimate. Everything done on it is currently open source, so if you want you can take a look at my calculations involving how long it will take to steal a dragon egg: http://getguesstimate.com/models/3068
This article seems like another cases of someone claiming they can predict the future. If there is one thing that history has show it is that it is simply not possible to do so. I will agree however that it is possible to LIMIT the damage but there is no guaranty. If there is one thing that I learned from the stocks is that it is impossible to say what the market is going to do in any given moment. And if this software has proven to do that well then I don’t think they would have let this get anywhere near the general public. Some would call me old school but I think if I had to pick between excel and this software I can almost guarantee that I would pick excel. Once man much wiser than me said, “don’t fix what isn’t broken”. And considering I have a class on excel this coming Monday, it is in fact still functioning. The really program that is going to blow excel and Guesstimate out of the water is alteryx
Excel is a powerful program and can do a lot. I think that this article is mistaken, at least when it comes to its use in theater. Predictive modeling is not something that most people use. When tracking a budget, there is no need for prediction. You’ve spent a certain amount of money and have a certain amount remaining. Where I can see this being helpful is in commercial theater and the prediction of ticket sales and revenue. Even so, I don’t think new software is needed. I don’t know that much about the stock market, but I don’t think this software can tell you when to sell. At least not the software alone. Excel is a spreadsheet and math program. It isn’t designed to predict anything, and I think that is for good reason. While predicting how long it will take you to get your young child ready for school could be useful, there is nothing life altering if you get it wrong. Predicting stocks can cost people their life savings. I say leave it to the professionals or software that is specific for stocks.
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